Why don't we see new species all the time?
If Humans evolved from our ancestors in only 200,000 years, why do we not see new species every day?
SCIENTIFIC
5/8/20241 min read
200,000 years ÷ 25 years/generation = 8,000 generations required for speciation (based on the premise for human evolution).
Bacterial generation time = 1 day, so time for one bacterial population group to speciate = 8,000 days.
Human evolution started with a population group size of 300,000 individuals leading to 1 new species.
Thus, assume the speciating group size is 300,000 individuals.
Number of such potential speciating groups in bacteria = 5 × 10³⁰ ÷ 300,000 = 1.6667 × 10²⁵ groups.
Speciation rate per group = 1 new species every 8,000 days, or 1/8,000 speciations per day per group.
Total new bacterial species per day = (1.6667 × 10²⁵) × (1/8,000) ≈ 2.083 × 10²¹.
200,000 years ÷ 25 years/generation = 8,000 generations required for speciation (based on the premise for human evolution).
Insect generation time = 1 year, so time for one insect population group to speciate = 8,000 years.
Human evolution started with a population group size of 300,000 individuals leading to 1 new species.
Thus, assume the speciating group size is 300,000 individuals.
Number of insects: 10^19.
Number of such potential speciating groups in insects = 10^19 ÷ 300,000 ≈ 3.333 × 10^13 groups.
Speciation rate per group = 1 new species every 8,000 years, or 1/8,000 speciations per year per group.
Total new insect species per year = (3.333 × 10^13) × (1/8,000) ≈ 4.166 × 10^9.
Per day (assuming 365 days/year) ≈ 4.166 × 10^9 / 365 ≈ 1.141 × 10^7 (about 11.4 million).
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